Water Pik Parts

Sea Level Study Leads to Divisions

The rise in sea levels is perhaps the most dangerous consequence of climate change. A majority of the world's population lives in coastal regions, and especially in poorer nations, hundreds of millions of people are threatened with an ever-increasing number of floods.

And the forecasts for sea levels are only pointing in one direction: upwards. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted in its status report from 2007 that, on average, global sea levels could rise by 59 centimeters by the year 2100. In a UN report released last week, the estimated rise in sea levels could be between 90 centimeters and 1.60 meters over the course of this century.

Now researchers have reconstructed how sea levels have risen historically, and have found that oceans are now swelling at a faster pace than ever before in the past 2,000 years.

Until now, the relationship between air temperature and sea levels has only been proven for the last 130 years, says Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). His team studied fossilized calcareous shells of microbes that came from the sediment in salt marshes in the state of North Carolina on the US Atlantic coast. Because these microbes to a certain degree depend on the ebb and flow of the sea waters, they show the scope of the rise in sea levels.

Mapping Out 2,000 Years in Sea Levels

Rahmstorf and colleagues published in the current issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . They have been able to map out four phases in the rise in sea levels. From 200 B.C. until 1,000 A.D., the water levels were relatively stable. Starting in the 11th century, sea levels rose about five centimeters per century for 400 years, which could be due to the warm periods of the Middle Ages. After that, there was another stable period with cooler temperatures that lasted until late in the 19th century, according to their report.

With industrialization came a dramatic upward trend: In a little more than 100 years, sea levels have risen by about 20 centimeters, or several times that which occurred per century over the past 2000 years.

Researchers trace that back to two factors: When water gets warmer it expands and sea levels rise; then melt water from the glaciers and from the large ice masses in Greenland and the Antarctic raise levels higher.

"Man continues to heat up the climate with the release of greenhouse gases, and as a result the glaciers are melting even faster and the sea levels are rising quicker than ever," Rahmstorf says. "The new study confirms our model of the rise in sea levels, and the data from the past sharpens our view of the future.

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